Update 12 juni 2022. Doctorow of degene die zijn blog beheert heeft tot twee keer toe mijn reactie op genoemde blogpost verwijderd. En ook de pingback naar mijn blogpost doordat ik naar zijn blogpost verwijs. Zodat lezers van zijn blogpost niet door kunnen klikken naar mijn blogpost. Doctorow is duidelijk geen voorstander van een open debat. Zijn gedrag geeft aan dat hij niet met opponenten in discussie wil gaan en geen kritiek op zijn blogs tolereert. Naar mijn idee ondermijnt dat zijn claims ‘een onafhankelijk politiek analist’ en ‘publieke intellectueel’ te zijn. Hij is het tegendeel daarvan.
Onderstaande reactie bood ik aan bij de blogpost ‘How the war will end…‘ van Gilbert Doctorow van 3 juni 2022. Hij deed 25 jaar zaken in de Russische Federatie en Oost-Europa, Doctorow afficheert zichzelf als ‘een onafhankelijk politiek analist’. Hij meent nu een ‘publieke intellectueel’ te zijn. Daar spreek ik hem op aan:
It is incorrect that the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation in 2014 has been accepted by many in Europe. Perhaps only by political leaders of Hungary and Serbia who represent a small voice in Europe.
Due to the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation, even the European radical right has now distanced itself from the Kremlin. That has two reasons. Russian leader Vladimir Putin looks like a weak dictator on the brink of collapse and the sovereignty for which the radical right is championing has been trampled by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
So the Kremlin’s support for European politics in Europe has declined rather than increased due to the war in Ukraine.
The non-binding 2014 UNGA Resolution 68/262 on Crimea’s status and referrendum called on states not to recognize the change in Crimea’s status. The resolution was passed by an overwhelming majority.
Then EU representative Thomas Mayr-Harting to the UN stated: ‘The European Union did not recognize the illegal referendum in Crimea, which was a clear violation of Ukraine’s Constitution, and strongly condemned the illegal annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol to the Russian Federation, which it equally would not recognize‘. That official position of the EU will remain in full force in 2022.
Also consider what former German Chancellor Angela Merkel remarked on the margins of the Minsk agreements that sometimes one has to be patient in order to allow political developments to find their place. She referred to the fact that it had taken decades before the GDR was no longer occupied and controlled by the then Soviet Union. That’s how it would go with Crimea, she said.
That is the basic attitude of the EU. It does not want to interfere in Ukrainian-Russian politics, but does not accept the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 by the Russian Federation. Not in 2014, not in 2022 and not in the future.
Thus, it is a well-known fact and widely documented that the so-called People’s Republics in the Donbas are Russian constructs orchestrated in 2014 from the Kremlin for geopolitical reasons to weaken Ukraine. This was not done at the initiative of the local population. In 2014, the military invaders from Moscow or Petersburg often did not know where they were and behaved like strangers in a strange warehouse.
The statement that ‘these two, three or more former oblasts as demanded by their populations, that is a situation fully compatible with the United Nations Charter’ does not correspond at all with the facts. It’s deception.
If Kherson is the third oblast in Doctorow’s frame, then it can be shown immediately that the local population is not asking to be part of the Russian Federation. For Donetsk and Luhansk, it has never been shown that the majority of the local population would have freely chosen to join the Russian Federation if those regions had not been militarized and politicized by the Russian Federation in 2014 and political opponents who supported the unitary state of Ukraine had been murdered, expelled or silenced.
That’s Doctorow’s wishful thinking that ignores reality. Anyone who takes a critical look will see that the Russian Federation under Putin has been slipping rapidly in recent years in terms of the rule of law, freedom of the press, human and fundamental rights, the legal position of companies, and the will and ability to interact with domestic and foreign opposition to enter into an open discussion.
So there is a lot in the field of universal values that stands in the way of the EU’s relationship with the Russian Federation. The illegitimate annexation of Crimea in 2014 is not a temporary ripple, but a sign that the Kremlin is flouting international treaties, human rights and building good neighborly relations. This policy of the current Kremlin leadership is the cause of the Russian Federation’s deteriorating relationship with Europe. That goes beyond Crimea alone.
What Doctorow proclaims, sows confusion. Fortunately, he does this in a not too clever way. But if he wants to tone down European support for Ukraine, he needs to come up with better arguments. He twists the facts. He mainly sows confusion about his own integrity and independence. Let’s end on a positive note: Gilbert Doctorow himself may also be confused by the confusion he sows.