George Knight

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Wie betaalt straks de rekening van de strijd in Oost-Oekraine?

with 3 comments

In Oost-Oekraïne vechten vele soorten opstandelingen tegen het centrale gezag van Kiev. Sommige blijven buiten beeld, zoals reguliere Russische inlichtingenofficieren die de opstand coördineren. Het Kremlin ontkent publiekelijk betrokkenheid, maar op regeringsniveau is vastgesteld dat Russische militairen betrokken zijn. Huurlingen uit de Russische Federatie komen iets makkelijker in beeld. Tsjetsjenen, Tadzjieken, Kozakken en etnische Russen zijn voor geld geronseld of door hun leiders om politieke redenen naar Oekraïne gestuurd. Dan zijn er lokale strijders die graag in beeld komen. Maar het zijn geen professionele militairen. Ze klooien wat aan en hebben meer moed dan militaire vaardigheid. In hun onzorgvuldigheid maken ze veel kapot. Met materiële schade en doden onder de burgerbevolking tot gevolg. De baboesjka’s en dorpelingen van het eerste uur die vooral meer zelfbestuur wilden zijn definitief opzij gezet door het vernietigende oorlogsgeweld.

Wat is het nut? Waar leidt het toe? Geweld maakt delen van Oost-Oekraïne kapot. Wie bouwt het straks weer op en betaalt de rekening? Is het nu gratis schieten voor de avontuurlijke macho’s op kosten van de EU?

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  1. @George: We weten beiden wie uiteindelijk het kind van de rekening zal zijn. Altijd dezelfde. Jan met de pet, het gewone klootjesvolk. Allereerst de lokale bevolking natuurlijk!

    jackpastoor

    27 juni 2014 at 17:33

  2. Russische oppositieleider Boris Nemtsov:
    http://inforesist.org/en/how-the-kremlin-zombie-box-works/

    How the Kremlin zombie-box works

    Putin zombiefies Russians by scary stories about Ukraine avoiding answers to uncomfortable questions about internal problems in his country.

    Poroshenko’s peace plan in its current state does not achieve its aim. There will be no peace in Donbas whilst the vile Kremlin propaganda machine works. This machine is a tool to send fighters to the east of Ukraine. Russian zombie-box feeds resources of separatists daily. Therefore, two things are needed to achieve a truce: to stop the vile information machine and close the border with Russia.

    In addition, Poroshenko can use the urgent need to restore Russian transport links with the Crimea as an argument in negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow. You will not bring 6 million tourists from Russia on airplanes and there are not enough ferries across the Kerch Strait. A breakdown of the holiday season can threaten Putin that it will be Crimeans and not residents of Kyiv who will come out with slogans “Putin Khuilo!” this autumn.

    The Russian president, certainly, is not very adequate. But for the sake of keeping the power, he is ready for rational behavior and certain agreements. He begun the war with Ukraine because he was scared of a repetition of the Maidan in Moscow, to show that a revolution is ended with chaos and that people cannot remove authorities in such a way.

    Putin fights with Ukraine on the basis of internal problems in Russia. It is immoral, but quite rational. A Russian man watches television and thinks: yeah, they came out on the Maidan, yeah, they overthrew the villain, yeah, Mezhihiria, yeah, the villain stole a lot of money. But on the other hand it is a mess now in the country. Therefore to hell with that, let Putin steal, at least he will keep the order. Kremlin’s message: look at neighbours, do you really want a war? No one wants it. For the same reason, just to keep the power in the Crimea, Putin will communicate with Poroshenko. It is because of the Crimea that rating of Putin spiralled from 40% to 80%.

    In negotiations with Russia you should bear in mind that our country is inert, with a large reserve of strength. The opinion that after the imposition of sanctions against Russia everything will collapse is an illusion. Russia is a petrol-cracy, a power of oil. Despite the fact that the embargo was lifted from Iran , its value didn’t fall, it is $115 per barrel. Even though the Russian gold reserves are reducing, they are still above $400 billion. Financial margin of Putinism is about two years, so there will be no Blitzkriegs and no collapse.

    You have to understand that Russia has no internal agenda. The province is in poverty, people with cancer do not have enough drugs, there are holes in local budgets, roads have not been repaired, transport and food costs are rising. Russians do not associate all those nasty things directly with Ukraine. The Kremlin propaganda machine eliminates increasing complex of economic and social problems by distracting grandmothers with NATO soldiers in the Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk and the Fifth Column of the opposition. There is a feeling that nothing happens in the Russian Federation.

    For example, there was a flood in the Altai, some people died, others were left homeless. But this topic is not in the information space. It is not a subject of public discussion, and no one is interested in it. Everyone is zombiefied by one theme only – Ukraine.

    Putin does this deliberately. If he will address the internal agenda: decline in industrial production, poor condition of roads, wild corruption, increase in utility tariffs, he will be asked questions. “The Crimea is ours and it is great of course, but how will we live in Russia?” Putin does not have answers to these questions. That is why Ukraine is a salvation from domestic problems for Kremlin. Public attention switched to the outside world, to the neighbours.

    By the way, regarding the propaganda. You, as a country which has been attacked must strike a balance. You also have some important people in the country spreading idiotic rumors. I understand that the fog of war will hide everything, but you’d better not be like Putin and drive propaganda. Opposites are often equally disgusting. And most importantly, Ukraine will never be able to set up a propaganda machine as it did Putin. Here you will definitely lose.

    George Knight

    28 juni 2014 at 11:25


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